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ARTURO HUERTA: economic policy
Arturo Huerta Writer Friday, January 14, 2011
| economic policy for the financial sector
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In 2010, the yield in dollars from foreign investors located in the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV) was 26.83%. This results from the lack of profitable investment options in their countries, so have opted channeled to the emerging world like ours, which pursues policies of 'stability' macro in your favor, such as high interest rates , fiscal discipline and stable nominal exchange rate (domestic currency appreciates), which acts on behalf of profitability in the financial sector. This has led to foreign investment in BMV 156 000 add $ 83 million. To this is added the more 43 billion dollars that foreign investors are in debt, given the higher interest rates it offers in relation to the international interest rate. This situation puts the national economy in a context of high vulnerability and fragility about the behavior of the capital. When the economy ceases to provide conditions of stability and profitability in favor of such capital, it will opt out of the economy, so that destabilize the capital markets, money and currency, and the economy as a whole . No wonder the Mexican government asked the International Monetary Fund will increase the credit line 47 billion to 73 billion dollars, so that together with the 113 billion dollars of foreign reserves, reaching about 200 billion dollars by the end of 2011 (equivalent to foreign investment located in the BMV , as in debt), to act as a buffer against speculative stocks that may arise.
government's concern is to ensure high returns to financial capital, to come and not go, in order to fund the deficit of the external sector, such as exchange rate stability, without this being translated better economic growth, since that capital does not flow to the productive sphere.
economic policies are established for the sector, which has made it possible that the BMV has offered the second best performance in the world (only surpassed by Argentina). This is not explained by the events of the real economy, as GDP growth in 2010, failed the drop shown in 2009, and do not show expected growth of the economy. This reflects that there is no support endogenous validate the gain shown in the BMV, which happens to be fictional, explained by the inflow of capital itself, when they want to go out, fall apart again BMV. That is, drop the price of the shares, and it will not gain any, only earn the first to sell and get out.
can not continue with the economic policy that acts on behalf of the financial sector, it implies further relegated to the productive sector (industrial and agricultural). BMV to offer higher performance (dummy) in relation to the productive sector, capital flows continue to favor the financial sector, which leads to lower growth, higher economic fragility, and another crisis. History repeats itself over and over again.
Source:
http://www.economia.unam.mx/eopina/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=376&Itemid=9
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